Playoff Time!

           “PLAYOFFS?!? PLAYOFFS?!?!” 

            
            Don’t worry, that’ll be the only Jim Mora reference in this post. However, I am talking about the playoffs. Not for the Indianapolis Colts though, who probably won’t be talking playoffs, but for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. NASCAR’s version of a playoff system, “The Chase for the Sprint Cup", starts Sunday afternoon at Chicago Speedway. It is the first of 10 races to decide the 2011 Champion.

            
            After last Saturday night’s race in Richmond the Top 12 in points were reset at 2000, and three bonus points were given for each win each driver had. So tied for the points lead now is Kyle Busch (unfortunately) and Kevin Harvick who both have four wins this season. Jeff Gordon starts 3^rd, three points behind Busch and Harvick. Matt Kenseth starts 4^th, six points behind the top two. Then there are four drivers that are nine points behind the leaders; Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Newman. The final four positions start 12 points behind, these drivers are: Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin.

Here’s a list of the Top 12 going into Race 1 in Chicago

Driver                         Points

1. Kyle Busch              2012               

2. Kevin Harvick         2012

3. Jeff Gordon              2009

4. Matt Kenseth           2006

5. Jimmie Johnson       2003

6. Carl Edwards           2003

7. Kurt Busch               2003

8. Ryan Newman         2003

9. Tony Stewart           2000

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.  2000

11. Brad Keselowski   2000

12. Denny Hamlin       2000

            
            What sets this year apart from past years is that there really seems like anybody could win it. If somebody is going to end Jimmie Johnson championship-winning streak at five, this is the best year to do it.

            
            Kyle Busch has been knocking on the door of a Cup Championship for a while and it seems like he finally has the consistency to get it done. Kevin Harvick has four wins but he has trouble getting consistent Top 10 finishes which are necessary to win it all. Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth, both previous Cup Champions, have multiple wins this season. Kenneth’s teammate, Carl Edwards, was great until the past few weeks but he says that’s because he and his crew chief have been working on different setups. The hottest driver in NASCAR (and my girlfriend’s favorite for some reason), Brad Keselowski, has to be considered a contender as well. Ever since Brad’s win at Pocono in August he has jumped up nearly 10 spots in the points standings and has been better than any other driver.

            
            So who doesn’t have a great shot at winning? Kevin Harvick has four wins but he has trouble getting consistent Top 10 finishes which are necessary to win it all. If he gets a couple of Top 5’s or 10’s the first two races then I’ll put him in my “contenders list”. Stewart-Haas teammates Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman have not been strong this season and even Stewart believed he wouldn’t make the Chase. Denny Hamlin made it into the Chase by the skin of his teeth. He is having a serious letdown after last season’s Championship runner-up performance. Last but not least is Kurt Busch. This guy must have switched brains with neurotic brother, Kyle. At the last race he wrecked, then got wrecked, by Jimmie Johnson. He verbally attacked a newspaper reporter and “snatched” papers out of the hands of another reporter. Attacking a journalist cost you a few points with me, Kurt.

The 12 "Chase for the Sprint Cup" drivers

             
            Prediction for the Chase: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards will separate themselves from the other “Chasers” as legit contenders by the 5^th or 6^th race.  Kevin Harvick will find a way to get a bad finish and take himself out of contention. The other six just won’t get it done on the track and will fall too far behind in the points standings. Going into the final race at Homestead, only Johnson, Busch, Gordon, and Edwards will remain in contention. Edwards will win the race and the Championship.

Sprint Cup at Half-way Point: Part 2

            Even though we are halfway through the season, there are numerous question marks that remain for next season. A big one being, where will Carl Edwards be next year? This is the last year on his Roush-Fenway contract, and he has been speaking to other teams. In fact, he visited the Joe Gibbs Racing garage last week.

            
            One place that some thought Edwards would end  up was Red Bull Racing. Well that’s not looking like a plausible plan because Red Bull has said they are selling their team after this season. This was announced a few weeks ago and rocked the world of NASCAR, as Red Bull is a name and brand known all around the world. The team has not had a lot of success in NASCAR, esp. compared to their Formula 1 team, which is the best in that league.

            Hendrick Motorsports driver, Mark Martin, is also unsure on his future. Next year he will be replaced by Kasey Kahne. He has said he wants to continue to race, but nobody knows for certain where he’ll be and if it’ll be full-time. It’s possible he may go into ownership with his friend Jay Frye, who is the president of the Red Bull Team, and also race for the team. If that were to happen, Red Bull could still be a part of the team as a sponsor. That’s a lot of “if’s” though, the only certain is Mark Martin will not be at Hendrick.

            Another result of the Red Bull departure is Brian Vickers. Vickers has always been a consistent driver. He won at Michigan and made the Chase in 2009. His 2010 season was cut short due to a blood clot, and it’s still unsure how healthy he is. Red Bull leaving is really a blow to Vickers’s career. He has raced with Red Bull since the team’s creation in 2007, and has stuck with them through their struggles. It’s disappointing to think Vickers may not have a ride next season.

            Other drivers with contracts up after season include; Greg Bifle (Roush), Jeff Burton (Childress), Clint Bowyer (Childress), and Juan Pablo Montoya (Earnhardt-Ganassi). I haven’t heard a lot on these drivers, but I expect all of them to be resigned. Burton is having a rough season, but is a popular driver and will probably be given an extension on his contract. Bowyer, Bifle, and Montoya are all having decent seasons and will probably given extensions as well.

My predictions for the next 8 races before the Chase starts:

            

            Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Tony Stewart will all make the Chase. Hamlin and Jr. just have to defend their Top 10 positions, but Stewart will win a race and knock his teammate Newman out.

            

            Juan Pablo Montoya will get a win and make it into the Chase as a wildcard. He has excelled at three of the upcoming tracks; Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, and Atlanta.

            

            As for that other wildcard spot, well who knows? All I can guarantee is that it’s going to get wild. Drivers are gonna be trying incredibly hard to get a win and further secure their chances of getting into the Chase.

Sprint Cup at Half-way Point: Part 1

            The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has hit the halfway point. 18 races have been completed, and 18 are left to go to decide the champion of the 2011 season. Seven races have been completed since I last wrote about the Sprint Cup series, and a lot has happened in those couple months.

               

            Carl Edwards has been the points leader almost the entire season, but after the race at Daytona two weeks ago, Kevin Harvick took over the lead. Then Kyle Busch won the inaugural race at Kentucky Speedway last Sunday and took over the points lead from Harvick.

                Top ten in points, with amount of wins in parenthesis:

1. Kyle Busch (3)

2. Kevin Harvick (1)

3. Carl Edwards (3)

4. Kurt Busch (1)

5. Jimmie Johnson (1)

6. Matt Kenseth (2)

7. Jeff Gordon (2)

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

9. Ryan Newman

10. Denny Hamlin (1)

                The next eleven in points:

11. Tony Stewart

12. Clint Bowyer

13. Juan Pablo Montoya

14. Greg Bifle

15. David Ragan (1)

16. Paul Menard

17. Kasey Kahne

18. A.J. Allmendinger

19. Mark Martin

20. Joey Logano

21. Brad Keselowski (1)

               

            I threw in the 21^st place driver because of the new "Wildcard" rule for the Chase for the Sprint Cup, NASCAR's playoff system.The top 10 drivers in the points standing after the 26th race are in the Chase. Then the two drivers outside the top 10 but inside the top 20 that have the most wins will also be in the Chase. If Brad K. can get into the top 20 then he will be eligible for the Chase, along with David Ragan.

               

            A big change in the points standings since the last time I covered the Sprint Cup Series has been the declining performance of Dale Earnhardt Jr. At one point, Jr. was 3^rd in points, now he’s 8^th. In the past four races he’s finished 19^th or worse, including a 30^th place finish last race. The one race Jr. is winning? The 2011 Sprint Cup’s Most Popular Driver Contest!

               

            But for every driver moving back, one has to be moving forward. That driver would be Jeff Gordon. Gordon has been on a tear since his win at Pocono last month. Since the Pocono race he’s finished 2^nd, 6^th, 10^th, and 17^th (those finishes are not chronological). He’s moved from 13^th to 7^th and with 2 wins this season he’s basically a lock for the Chase.

               

Jeff Gordon celebrating at Pocono

               

            If you recall, I made some very bold predictions for what would happen over the course of 15 races until the Chase. I said that Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, and Kurt Busch would all need to step it up to make the Chase. That is holding truth for Stewart and Newman, who sit 11^th and 9^th in points, respectively. Neither driver has any wins, nor has any driven appeared to be able to compete for a win. Kurt Busch is the one I whiffed in. Busch got a win at Sonoma and sits comfortably at 4^th in the standings.

               

Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart, at a much happier time.

           
             I also said that Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, and Greg Bifle would be looking to break into the Top 10. Again, I went 2 for 3. Hamlin has one win and sits 10^th in points, and you already know about Gordon. Bifle has looked very mediocre in the past couple races, and I have no idea why. In the past four races he’s averaged a 19.5 finishing position.

               

            A lot of folks are freaking out about how "human" Jimmie Johnson has looked recently. The five-time champion is lacking in the win column compared to past years but there is no reason to lose faith in him. He has won five straight titles, and is still my favorite to win the 2011 Championship and make it six-straight.
            
            A.J. Allmendinger, my favorite driver, has gone off the deep end quickly. He had one good race at Sonoma, but besides that he’s finished nowhere near the front of the pack. At one point, this guy had a real chance to make the Chase. I’m not so sure now. He is always good at Indy though, and you can't count him out at Watkins Glen (a road course).