2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup

                 There are just four races left to decide the 2011 Sprint Cup Champion. The first six races in the Chase for the Sprint Cup were exciting and included many twists and turns that nobody saw coming.  The first two races were won by Tony Stewart, who had said before the Chase he had no hopes of being able to even compete. Needless to say nobody was more shocked by Stewart’s victories than himself. Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth shared victories in the next three races. Then all Hades broke out at Talladega last weekend. Even though Carl Edwards didn’t win, he was able to capitalize on poor finishes of nearly all the Chase drivers and pull out to a 14 point lead over second place in the Chase points standings.

The standings for the Chase through six races

Position     Driver                    Points Behind

1) Carl Edwards

2) Matt Kenseth                      -14                  

3) Brad Keselowski                 -18      

4) Tony Stewart                      -19

5) Kevin Harvick                     -26

6) Kyle Busch                         -40

7) Jimmie Johnson                 -50

8) Kurt Busch                          -52

9) Dale Earnhardt Jr.              -74

10) Jeff Gordon                      -82

11) Ryan Newman                 -84

12) Denny Hamlin                   -88

            The new points system really makes it easy to tell you who is out of this thing and who still has a chance. Everybody that has less than 43 points is one race behind, and probably out of contention. If you notice, Jimmie Johnson is 50 points behind but I would not count him out like everybody in the media is. This guy is the best in NASCAR and always a threat to win. Kurt Busch, Dale Jr., Gordon, Newman, and Hamlin are done in my opinion.

- The points system by the way starts at 43 for 1^st place, then decreases by one point for each position. So 1^st gets 43, 2^nd gets 42, 3^rd gets 41, etc.

            The biggest shocker in the Chase so far is Brad Keselowski. (I never thought I’d say that). I am not sold on Brad yet. Maybe it’s because he’s my girlfriend’s favorite driver and I’m jealous, but I have not been impressed. He is a good driver though and will be a name that you hear a lot of in the future. On the flip side, the most disappointing driver has been Jeff Gordon. He came into the Chase with three wins and seemed like he would make a run for his fifth championship but those dreams have quickly disappeared. Just like Johnson though, don’t count him out until he’s officially out.

            
            Here are the final four races and a quick preview:

Martinsville (10/30 at 2:00 p.m.)- If Jimmie Johnson is gonna get back into contention for the Championship it’s gonna happen here. Johnson and his Hendrick Motorsports team has dominated this place for about the last 4 years. Another driver to watch out for is Kevin Harvick, who won hear in the Spring.

Texas (11/6 at 3:00 p.m.)- Looking at the results from the last three races here, it appears the driver with the most success has been Jimmie Johnson. What a shocker! Matt Kenseth won the race at Texas in the Spring earlier this year, so look for him to be strong.

Phoenix (11/13 at 3:00 p.m.)- This another track that Johnson has had success at, but so has Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch. Edwards won this race last year and Busch has finished in the Top 15 the past three races here.

Homestead 11/20 at 3:00 p.m.) This is the race that will decide it all. Who knows what will happen between 
here and this race, but it should be exciting. Whoever still has a shot at the championship will definitely be in contention to win here.

            Before the Chase I made the prediction that Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards would “separate themselves as the legit Chase drivers by the 5^th or 6^th race”. Well, six races down and Kenseth and Edwards have done that. The other three still have some catching up to do to make my fortune-telling right. I also said Kevin Harvick would not be in contention, but right now he’s only 26 points behind Edwards. Finally, I predicted that Edwards would win the race and the Championship at Homestead. That has a pretty good chance of being spot on.

Playoff Time!

           “PLAYOFFS?!? PLAYOFFS?!?!” 

            
            Don’t worry, that’ll be the only Jim Mora reference in this post. However, I am talking about the playoffs. Not for the Indianapolis Colts though, who probably won’t be talking playoffs, but for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. NASCAR’s version of a playoff system, “The Chase for the Sprint Cup", starts Sunday afternoon at Chicago Speedway. It is the first of 10 races to decide the 2011 Champion.

            
            After last Saturday night’s race in Richmond the Top 12 in points were reset at 2000, and three bonus points were given for each win each driver had. So tied for the points lead now is Kyle Busch (unfortunately) and Kevin Harvick who both have four wins this season. Jeff Gordon starts 3^rd, three points behind Busch and Harvick. Matt Kenseth starts 4^th, six points behind the top two. Then there are four drivers that are nine points behind the leaders; Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, and Ryan Newman. The final four positions start 12 points behind, these drivers are: Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin.

Here’s a list of the Top 12 going into Race 1 in Chicago

Driver                         Points

1. Kyle Busch              2012               

2. Kevin Harvick         2012

3. Jeff Gordon              2009

4. Matt Kenseth           2006

5. Jimmie Johnson       2003

6. Carl Edwards           2003

7. Kurt Busch               2003

8. Ryan Newman         2003

9. Tony Stewart           2000

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.  2000

11. Brad Keselowski   2000

12. Denny Hamlin       2000

            
            What sets this year apart from past years is that there really seems like anybody could win it. If somebody is going to end Jimmie Johnson championship-winning streak at five, this is the best year to do it.

            
            Kyle Busch has been knocking on the door of a Cup Championship for a while and it seems like he finally has the consistency to get it done. Kevin Harvick has four wins but he has trouble getting consistent Top 10 finishes which are necessary to win it all. Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth, both previous Cup Champions, have multiple wins this season. Kenneth’s teammate, Carl Edwards, was great until the past few weeks but he says that’s because he and his crew chief have been working on different setups. The hottest driver in NASCAR (and my girlfriend’s favorite for some reason), Brad Keselowski, has to be considered a contender as well. Ever since Brad’s win at Pocono in August he has jumped up nearly 10 spots in the points standings and has been better than any other driver.

            
            So who doesn’t have a great shot at winning? Kevin Harvick has four wins but he has trouble getting consistent Top 10 finishes which are necessary to win it all. If he gets a couple of Top 5’s or 10’s the first two races then I’ll put him in my “contenders list”. Stewart-Haas teammates Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman have not been strong this season and even Stewart believed he wouldn’t make the Chase. Denny Hamlin made it into the Chase by the skin of his teeth. He is having a serious letdown after last season’s Championship runner-up performance. Last but not least is Kurt Busch. This guy must have switched brains with neurotic brother, Kyle. At the last race he wrecked, then got wrecked, by Jimmie Johnson. He verbally attacked a newspaper reporter and “snatched” papers out of the hands of another reporter. Attacking a journalist cost you a few points with me, Kurt.

The 12 "Chase for the Sprint Cup" drivers

             
            Prediction for the Chase: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards will separate themselves from the other “Chasers” as legit contenders by the 5^th or 6^th race.  Kevin Harvick will find a way to get a bad finish and take himself out of contention. The other six just won’t get it done on the track and will fall too far behind in the points standings. Going into the final race at Homestead, only Johnson, Busch, Gordon, and Edwards will remain in contention. Edwards will win the race and the Championship.

2011 Brickyard 400 Review

Paul Menard "kisses the bricks" after his victory Sunday

            The 18^th Brickyard 400 was all about fuel strategy, and the man with the best strategy on Sunday was Paul Menard. Menard won the first race of his career at the track that his father and he have been a part of for a very long time. Paul’s father, John Menard, has fielded cars in the Indy 500 for 35 years but had never been a part of a victory.

           

            If the Menard name sounds familiar, that’s because it is. John Menard owns the Menard home improvement stores and is one of the richest men in the world.  Many said Paul was only in NASCAR because his father was able to sponsor his car without Paul having to prove himself. One of those critics was Tony Stewart, when a few years ago he said “You can have your father buy a ride and write a big check, but you can't buy talent." But as Jeff Gordon said after the race, “You don’t win at Indy by fluke”. I had never been impressed with Menard before the Brickyard. After seeing him hold off a fast-charging Gordon was very impressive and conserve enough gas to finish was impressive.

Paul Menard(right) and his father, John

           

           

            The first third of the race was dominated by Red Bull Racing’s Kasey Kahne. Kahne led all the laps until the first round of pit stops at Lap 30, then took back over the lead and led until Lap 60 when Hendrick Motorsports took over. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson went back and forth from positions 1, 2, and 3. Then when a caution came out, the fuel insanity began.

           

            Some drivers came in, some did not. Some drivers took 2 tires and others took 4. Drivers with great cars were stuck in the back while drivers with mediocre cars were upfront. From this point on, Lap 100, the race was going to come down to strategy and fuel conservation. There were numerous different leaders including Brad Keselowski, Landon Cassill, and Paul Menard.

           

            With 20 laps left, Indiana’s Tony Stewart had the lead. He has won the Brickyard twice, but there was no way he could make it to the finish without getting gas. This was the same song for most of the drivers except ones who had pitted around Lap 125 during a caution; one of the drivers that did pit was Paul Menard. Stewart did eventually pit on Lap 145, and Paul Menard took over the lead.

           

            Menard lead with Mark Martin 2^nd, Jamie McMurray 3^rd, Greg Bifle 4^th, and Regan Smith 5^th. All of these drivers were pretty low on fuel and had to conserve to make it to the end.  The first driver in line behind these conservationists was Jeff Gordon. Gordon had to pit under green and was 10 seconds behind the lead group of cars with 20 laps to go.

           

            10 laps to go and Menard still lead with McMurray 2^nd, Martin 3^rd, Trevor Bayne 4^th, and Smith 5^th. Gordon was now only 8 seconds behind. With 8 laps to go McMurray took over the lead and looked like he had Menard beat, but Gordon was now only 7 seconds behind.  .

           

            4 laps left and Menard was given the message that he had conserved saved enough gas and could run flat out. He passed McMurray and took over the lead. Gordon was now 2 seconds back and in 4^th place. 3 to go and Gordon moved into 3^rd, then into 2^nd.  2 laps to go and Gordon was just one second behind Menard.  The white flag came out and Menard still held his lead. He made his last four turns and came down the frontstretch to take the checkered flag and win the 2011 Brickyard 400.

           

           

            Jeff Gordon definitely had the fastest car all day. I was really upset to see him not be able to seal the deal. Menard knows what it means to win at the Brickyard, so I’m happy he won. Kasey Kahne also had an incredibly fast car but got caught up in strategy and never saw the lead except for earlier in the race. My driver A.J. Allmendinger also had a fast car and if the race would have played out without the fuel strategy he would have at least had a top 5. Instead he finished 22^nd.

           

           

            My pick to win the race, Matt Kenseth, had a strong car all day and finished 5th. My other picks to win the race with their finishing position: Jeff Gordon (2^nd), Jimmie Johnson (19^th), Greg Bifle (7^th), and Carl Edwards (14^th). If you recall, I originally had Tony Stewart (6^th) and Kevin Harvick (11^th) instead of Kenseth and Bifle.  Neither Stewart nor Harvick had good cars; they just played the strategy right. The same could be said for Bifle too.

2011 Brickyard 400 Preview

            
            Finally, Brickyard 400 Weekend has arrived! This is definitely my favorite weekend of the summer, and second favorite of the whole year behind Memorial Day Weekend.  It’s always an awesome experience, and this year should not disappoint.

               
            The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of the most difficult tracks to race on because of its low banked- turns and narrow straight-aways. The track was designed for open-wheel cars, and even they have a tough time getting around. The great thing about the configuration of the track is that only the best of the best win, as opposed to say the Daytona 500. 
            
            The past Brickyard winners are: Jeff Gordon(4), Dale Earnhardt, Dale Jarrett(2), Ricky Rudd, Bobby Labonte, Bill Elliot (the only one I couldn’t remember), Tony Stewart(2), Jimmie Johnson(3), Kevin Harvick, and Jamie McMurray. From that list, only Ricky Rudd, Kevin Harvick, and Jamie McMurray have not won the Sprint Cup Championship before.
               
            Looking at who has won it in the past can easily tell you who has the best chance to win this year. Here are my drivers with the best chance to win the 2011 Brickyard 400.


Jeff Gordon – Spent his childhood racing until he became a big name driver, so he knows s the history of IMS. He has won at Indy 4 times, and is having a good season thus far. He will be attempting to be the first person to win at IMS five times.

Jimmie Johnson- He has won three times in the past five races. People think he’s struggling this year, but my god, he’s 2^nd in the points standings! Plus he’s Jimmie Johnson; he has a good chance to win everywhere.

Tony Stewart- Born and raised in Indiana, he is always the crowd favorite (unfortunately). He is a two-time winner, but is struggling a little this season. He is always better in the summer and just came off a second place finish, so look for him to be upfront.

Kevin Harvick- He won his only Brickyard in 2004, but he has been strong all season as he has three wins.

Carl Edwards- The current Sprint Cup points leader has never won at Indy, or any track similar to Indy. He is obviously having a great season, and this could be the year he gets that first win at the Brickyard.

Juan Pablo Montoya- The 2000 Indianapolis 500 winner is struggling this year. He has not had any success all season, and just got a new crew chief, so their first race working together will be in Indy. He has absolutely dominated the past two Brickyards, but has never been able to get the win.


            Before seeing any cars practice or even qualifications, I’m picking Tony Stewart to win the race. I’ll update that pick Saturday night though.

Sprint Cup at Half-way Point: Part 1

            The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series has hit the halfway point. 18 races have been completed, and 18 are left to go to decide the champion of the 2011 season. Seven races have been completed since I last wrote about the Sprint Cup series, and a lot has happened in those couple months.

               

            Carl Edwards has been the points leader almost the entire season, but after the race at Daytona two weeks ago, Kevin Harvick took over the lead. Then Kyle Busch won the inaugural race at Kentucky Speedway last Sunday and took over the points lead from Harvick.

                Top ten in points, with amount of wins in parenthesis:

1. Kyle Busch (3)

2. Kevin Harvick (1)

3. Carl Edwards (3)

4. Kurt Busch (1)

5. Jimmie Johnson (1)

6. Matt Kenseth (2)

7. Jeff Gordon (2)

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

9. Ryan Newman

10. Denny Hamlin (1)

                The next eleven in points:

11. Tony Stewart

12. Clint Bowyer

13. Juan Pablo Montoya

14. Greg Bifle

15. David Ragan (1)

16. Paul Menard

17. Kasey Kahne

18. A.J. Allmendinger

19. Mark Martin

20. Joey Logano

21. Brad Keselowski (1)

               

            I threw in the 21^st place driver because of the new "Wildcard" rule for the Chase for the Sprint Cup, NASCAR's playoff system.The top 10 drivers in the points standing after the 26th race are in the Chase. Then the two drivers outside the top 10 but inside the top 20 that have the most wins will also be in the Chase. If Brad K. can get into the top 20 then he will be eligible for the Chase, along with David Ragan.

               

            A big change in the points standings since the last time I covered the Sprint Cup Series has been the declining performance of Dale Earnhardt Jr. At one point, Jr. was 3^rd in points, now he’s 8^th. In the past four races he’s finished 19^th or worse, including a 30^th place finish last race. The one race Jr. is winning? The 2011 Sprint Cup’s Most Popular Driver Contest!

               

            But for every driver moving back, one has to be moving forward. That driver would be Jeff Gordon. Gordon has been on a tear since his win at Pocono last month. Since the Pocono race he’s finished 2^nd, 6^th, 10^th, and 17^th (those finishes are not chronological). He’s moved from 13^th to 7^th and with 2 wins this season he’s basically a lock for the Chase.

               

Jeff Gordon celebrating at Pocono

               

            If you recall, I made some very bold predictions for what would happen over the course of 15 races until the Chase. I said that Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, and Kurt Busch would all need to step it up to make the Chase. That is holding truth for Stewart and Newman, who sit 11^th and 9^th in points, respectively. Neither driver has any wins, nor has any driven appeared to be able to compete for a win. Kurt Busch is the one I whiffed in. Busch got a win at Sonoma and sits comfortably at 4^th in the standings.

               

Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart, at a much happier time.

           
             I also said that Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, and Greg Bifle would be looking to break into the Top 10. Again, I went 2 for 3. Hamlin has one win and sits 10^th in points, and you already know about Gordon. Bifle has looked very mediocre in the past couple races, and I have no idea why. In the past four races he’s averaged a 19.5 finishing position.

               

            A lot of folks are freaking out about how "human" Jimmie Johnson has looked recently. The five-time champion is lacking in the win column compared to past years but there is no reason to lose faith in him. He has won five straight titles, and is still my favorite to win the 2011 Championship and make it six-straight.
            
            A.J. Allmendinger, my favorite driver, has gone off the deep end quickly. He had one good race at Sonoma, but besides that he’s finished nowhere near the front of the pack. At one point, this guy had a real chance to make the Chase. I’m not so sure now. He is always good at Indy though, and you can't count him out at Watkins Glen (a road course).