2011 Indy 500 predictions

Artist Thomas Kinkade's rendition of 100 years of the Indianapolis 500

           Since 1970, the winner has started pole position 13 times, and the winner has started 2^nd or 3^rd a combined nine times. Going further, the winner has started outside the top 10 in only seven races. That means in the past 29 races, the winner has started in the top 10 23 times. So what does all that mean? I’m not sure, because statistics don’t mean much to me. I just looked all that up to impress you and your friends.

Alex Tagliani starting on the pole has me thinking this might be the year somebody other than Penske or Ganassi gets the win. Most people will have him as an underdog pick, and maybe as the favorite. If you’re making a sensible pick though, you have to go with a driver from one of the two most successful IndyCar teams ever, Penske or Ganassi.

The Penske drivers are: Helio Castroneves, #3, and a three time winner; Will Power, #12, no wins on an oval course; Ryan Briscoe, #6. Castroneves is starting way back in the field, but he’s Helio, and I have confidence that he can win from anywhere. Ryan Briscoe is starting 27^th, and I’m guaranteeing he won’t even finish in the top 5.

The Ganassi drivers are: Dario Franchitti, #10, a two-time winner; Scott Dixon, #9, a one-time winner. Both drivers are starting in the top 9, and have a far better chance of winning than the Penske drivers.

So besides those five drivers, who has the best chance of winning? For me, there are several drivers that have great chances at pulling an upset. They are in order of who I think has the best shot at winning.

Alex Tagliani- #77. Starting 1^st. Obviously has a quick car.

Vitor Meira- #14. Starting 11^th. Finished 2^nd in two Indy 500’s.

Dan Wheldon- #98. Starting 6^th. Former Indy 500 winner.

Danica Patrick- #7. Starting 26^th. Indy is definitely her best track.

Oriol Servia- #2. Starting 3^rd . 3^rd in the IndyCar Championship.

Ed Carpenter- #67. Starting 8^th. Has been fast all month.

Marco Andretti- #26. Starting 28^th. Lost the 2005 Indy 500 by less than one second.

Buddy Rice- #44. Starting 7^th. Former Indy 500 winner.

My three picks for the winner of the 100th anniversary of the Indianapolis 500:

Dario Franchitti, Alex Tagliani, Scott Dixon

-Yes, I picked three. I’m allowed to do that, it’s my blog!

Comment and let me know who you think will get to drink the milk after 500 miles!

2011 Pole and Bump Day

 Pole Day and Bump Day have been staples of the Indianapolis 500 for over 50 years. The two days, which are now on the Saturday and Sunday before the race, are always filled with drama. This year was no different.

           

On Pole Day, everybody expected the two heavyweights of the IndyCar series to duke it out for the poles position like last year. Neither Penske Racing nor Ganassi Racing though, was able to claim the top spot. Instead, the field will be led by Alex Tagliani, driver for Sam Schmidt Motorsports. Tagliani had a four lap average of 227.472, which was good enough to start position one. Also starting on the first row will be Oriol Servia, part of Newman/ Hass Racing, and Ganassi driver Scott Dixon.

-By the way, for the Indy 500, the cars start 3-wide.

           

                                     - Alex Tagliani and car owner, Sam Schmidt
                                                      
             There is only one Penske driver starting in the Top 9, that being Will Power. His teammates Helio Castroneves will start on the inside of Row 6, and Ryan Briscoe will start on the outside of Row 9. Will Power is the IndyCar series points leader, but has never won a race on an oval.

           

As said earlier, Ganassi’s Scott Dixon will start on the front row. Dario Franchitti, last year’s winner, starts on the outside of row three.

If it seemed like a rough day for Team Penske, it was nothing compared to what Andretti Autosports endured over the weekend. Only one out of the five cars a part of the team was guaranteed a spot in the race, that being John Andretti (nephew of “500” legend, Mario Andretti). Thus on Sunday, the intrigue of Bump Day began.

           Bump Day involved 17 cars all vying for just nine spots (positions 25-33 in the starting grid, the top 24 were locked in on Pole Day). The weather added even more drama to the day, as it rained twice, and took about a combined four hours to dry the track. That allowed only two hours of actual qualifying.

After the first rainfall, Paul Tracy took off to complete his four laps. While on the track rain started to fall, but it held off long enough to all Tracy to finish and get into the race. Waiting to head onto the track though, was IndyCar’s most popular female driver, Danica Patrick.

Patrick had yet to make a qualifying run, so if it rained hard enough and cancelled qualifying, she would not be in the field of 33. Well it did rain hard enough. Every IndyCar and IMS official had to be on their knees praying for sunshine. If Danica Patrick was not in the 500, it would be like Indianapolis without construction, incomprehensible!

           

 Fortunately, Mother Nature let up, and when the track was finally dried, Danica peeled out of pit road and completed her qualifying laps. She will start 26^th, her worst starting spot in the 500 ever.

           

Oh, but the drama did not end there. When Danica made it in, she bumped out Alex Lloyd, which then put Marco Andretti (teammate of Danica) onto the bubble. With only nine minutes left to qualify, Alex Lloyd went onto the track and after finishing his four-lap run, made the field and bumped out Marco Andretti.

            

Now, the climax of the day’s compelling storyline would occur. Marco Andretti would be the last driver to qualify before time ran out. If he made it into the field, he would bump out teammate Ryan Hunter-Reay. If he doesn’t make it in, then the 500 will be without one if most famous names.

            

Andretti averaged a four lap average of 224.628 mph, and did bump out Hunter-Reay. It was a bittersweet moment for Michael Andretti, owner of Andretti Autosports (the team Hunter-Reay drives for). His son will be in the race, but two of his drivers will not be.

            Also failing to qualify was Mike Conway and Scott Speed.

UPDATED STORY (5/23/2011 at 9:43pm)

            

Ryan Hunter-Reay will take Bruno Junqueira’s ride for the Indy 500. Bruno was in the #41 car, owned by A.J. Foyt. The car will now be driven by Hunter-Reay, will still be #41, but will start 33^rd.

             

            
              Starting Lineup for the 100^th Anniversary race of the Indianapolis 500

Row 1

Alex Tagliani-77

Scott Dixon- 9

Oriol Servia- 2

Row 2

Townsend Bell-99

Will Power- 12

Dan Wheldon- 98

Row 3

Buddy Rice- 44

Ed Carpenter- 67

Dario Franchitti- 10

Row 4

Takuma Sato- 5         

Vitor Meira- 14                                                   

JR Hildebrand- 4

Row 5

James Hinchcliffe- 06                       

Bertrand Baguette- 30                             

Davey Hamilton- 11

Row 6

Helio Castroneves- 3***                               

John Andretti-43                                     

E.J. Viso- 59

Row 7

Bruno Junqueria- 41#                        

Justin Wilson- 22                              

Jay Howard- 88

Row 8

Tomas Sheckter- 07                         

Tony Kanaan- 82                                 

Simona de Silvestro- 78

Row 9

Paul Tracy- 23                                         

Danica Patrick- 7                                       

 Ryan Briscoe- 6

Row 10

Marco Andretti-26                              

Charlie Kimball- 83                            

Graham Rahall- 38

Row 11

 Alex Lloyd- 19                                           

Pippa Mann- 36                                        

 Ana Beatriz- 24

*Denotes amounts of 500 wins.

# Driver will be replaced by Ryan Hunter-Reay and will start 33^rd.