The rematch. Eli in his brother’s house. Patriots in their rival’s stadium. Brady and Belichick try to make history. Eli attempts to cement his legacy.
Those are just some of story lines for Super Bowl XLVI between the New England Patriots and New York Giants. The Patriots are currently -2.5 point favorites, but that number has dropped since a week ago when it was 3.5. These two teams are almost exact replicas of each other as you’ll see in this preview, so it’s very likely that the game will be decided by three or less points.
In this preview of the Super Bowl I’ll go through each aspect of the game and give a breakdown of how each team handles it.
Pass Offense
Patriots
Starting wide receivers and tight ends: Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez
Led by quarterback Tom Brady, they have one of the most productive passing attacks in the history of the NFL. Brady is helped extensively by two freakishly athletic tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Those two have combined for 169 receptions, 2200 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns. The Patriots wide receivers are also some of the best. Wes Welker leads the team with 122 receptions, 1560 yards and 9 touchdowns. Keep an eye on receiver Deion Branch too.
Giants
Starting wide receivers and tight ends: Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Jake Ballard
Before the season, Eli Manning said he should be considered an elite quarterback. Most people scoffed at this idea, including myself. He proved that he does deserve to be in the same class as Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as he threw for 4933 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2011. Most of the yards and touchdowns were thrown to the Giants young wide receiving corps consisting of Mario Manningham, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks. The triplet combined for 3,521 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Advantage: I would say the Patriots but Rob Gronkowski may have an injured ankle. If he is not able to perform at 100% then the Patriots offense will struggle. Giants and Eli Manning have the advantage.
Rush Offense
Patriots
Starting offensive line: Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Brian Waters, Nate Solder
Running backs: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead, Stevan Ridley
They have a running game? You may not know because you never hear about it. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (possibly the worst name ever) ran the ball 181 times for 667 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, in the playoffs, he has run the ball 28 times for just 96 yards and 1 touchdown. The Patriots also utilize Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead in the backfield. New England will need Green-Ellis to get some production on the ground to open up the passing game and give Brady time to throw the ball.
Giants
Starting offensive line: David Diehl, Kevin Boothe, David Baas, Chris Snee, Kareem McKenzie
Running backs: Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Henry Hynoski
I had no idea of this, but the Giants have the worst ranked rushing attack in the NFL. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs split time in the backfield pretty equally. Bradshaw has 171 rushes and 659 yards. Jacobs has 159 rushes for 571 yards. It will be interesting to see how those two share the backfield tonight.
Advantage: Both are pretty equal in my mind. The Patriots may produce more yards, but it’s going to be tough to run against the Giants’ defensive line. Both teams use the pass to set up the run, so whoever has more success in the passing game will have more success in the running game.
Secondary
Patriots
Starting defensive backs: Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, James Ihedigbo, Patrick Chung
New England ranks 31st in passing yards given up, 31st in total defense and allowed the opposing team to score 20+ points in 13 of their 18 games. Defense is not their strength. Fortunately they have produced 23 interceptions and defended 56 passes. They have not faced many great offenses like the Giants, but they were able to hold Eli Manning to 250 yards and two touchdowns when the teams met earlier this year.
Giants
Starting defensive backs: Corey Webster, Kenny Phillips, Antrel Rolle, Aaron Ross
New York’s’ secondary may not be as bad statistically as New England’s, but it’s still pretty bad. They rank 29th in passing yards given up and 27th in total defense. During the season they forced 20 interceptions and defended 82 passes. The Giants have faced three great offenses in the post season and have no problem stopping any of them. They shut out the Falcons, stopped Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and held the 49ers to less than 200 passing yards. Tom Brady destroyed this unit when they met earlier in the season as he threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns.
Advantage: Patriots.
Linebackers
Patriots
Starting linebackers: Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Rob Ninkovich, Tracy White
New England uses a 4-3 and 3-4 defense and ranks 17th in rushing yards given up. The team’s leading tackler and starting linebacker, Jerard Mayo, is one of the best young linebackers and tallied up 95 tackles and 2 interceptions during the season. The Patriots have struggled to stop the run in the postseason and allowed more than 100 yards in each of their games.
Giants
Starting linebackers: Michael Boley, Chase Blackburn, Mathias Kiwanuka
New York gives up an average of 121 rushing yards per game, which puts them at 19th in the NFL. During the playoffs, the Giants held the Falcons to just 64 yards. They allowed the 49ers and Packers to rush for 150 yards in each games, but did not give up any touchdowns.
Advantage: Giants
Defensive Line
Patriots
Starters: Shaun Ellis, Vince Wilfork, Mark Anderson, Kyle Love, Brandon Deaderick
New England switches between a 3-4 and 4-3 defense, that’s why there are five guys listed. They use both formations to keep offenses off balance and you know Belichick is going to do all he can to confuse Eli Manning. This unit has accumulated 20 sacks and 8 tackles for loss. Their star player is 300 lb. Vince Wilfork who has two interceptions and two great returns.
Giants
Starters: Justin Tuck, Linval Joseph, Chris Canty, Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora
I would consider this the best defensive line in the NFL. Tuck and Pierre-Paul are quick defensive ends that can get to the quarterback quickly (a la Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney of the Colts). You know your line is good when a 2010 All-Pro player is a backup. The Giants defensive linemen sacked opposing quarterbacks 36 times during the season, and had 14 tackles for loss.
Advantage: Giants. This is where the game is going to be won for the Giants. If they can get to Brady and force him to make quick decisions, they can force turnovers and incomplete passes. They did just that against the Packers. It should continue today.
Coaching
Both teams have great coaches. Bill Belichick is considered one of the best coaches of all time, but if he wants that consideration from me than he has to win this Super Bowl. Tom Coughlin has never gotten any kind of recognition for what he has done. In fact, he spends most of the regular season on the hot seat. He could give himself a couple years of security with a win tonight.
Advantage: Belichick, slightly.
The Giants and the Patriots are equal in nearly every aspect. I said it up there and I’ll say it again. The deciding factor in the game will be how much pressure each defensive line can get on the opposing quarterback. New York has the advantage there and that’s why I think they will get the win.
Prediction: Giants beat the Patriots 27-17.
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