Four weeks from this Sunday, 68 teams will be selected to play in the NCAA Tournament. You may know this better as the March Madness Tournament, or that big bracket people fill out to win tons of money. With a month of games left, how many schools from Indiana will make it?
The college basketball season began with a lot of hype and hopes for Indiana teams. Butler, Purdue, and Notre Dame were expected to make a return trip to the NCAA Tournament. Indiana State, Valparaiso, and Ball State were also expected to have strong teams. Then the success of Indiana University had the whole state buzzing. Most of us Hoosiers thought that four or five teams would be representing Indiana and showing why we love basketball.
That was back in November. Now, three months later, our expectations have dipped just a bit. The only teams that still have a legitimate chance of making the Tourney in March are: Notre Dame, Purdue, Indiana and Valparaiso. Sure, the rest of the teams could win their conference tournament and earn an automatic bid, but that is going to take a lot of work, and some luck.
-Note: Rankings are as of the Week 14 (February 6th) polls. Records are as of games played through February 9th.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (16-8, 8-3)
Best wins: #19 Marquette, at UConn, vs. #2 Syracuse, at Seton Hall
Worst losses: Georgia, Rutgers, Maryland
The Irish started the season 9-6. The train of thought around the program was the Irish would be playing in the NIT Tournament in March. They had been blown out by Missouri and Gonzaga, and tough losses in winnable games against Maryland and Georgia. It didn’t get any better as the Irish went 2-2 in their next four games, but now they are on a five-game winning streak and in third place in the Big East Conference. They still aren’t getting much respect (Joe Junardi of ESPN has them projected to get a #8 seed in the NCAA Tourney) but they could earn another runner-up spot in their conference.
Remaining games: vs. DePaul, vs. Rutgers, at Villanova, vs. West Virginia, at St. Johns, at #11 Georgetown, vs. Providence.
Indiana Hoosiers (19-6, 7-6)
Best wins: #1 Kentucky, #3 Ohio State, #25 Michigan
Worst losses: Minnesota, at Nebraska,
Can you believe this team was once 15-1 and was flirting with a very real chance of getting a #1 seed in the Tourney? It’s been a rough January for IU as they went 4-4 with losses to Minnesota and Nebraska. It was a nervous time when the Hoosiers were 17-6 and facing two tough games against Purdue and Illinois. They won both of those games and set themselves up for a great chance to finish with at least 22 wins.
Remaining games: vs. Northwestern, at Iowa, vs. N.C. Central, vs. #12 Michigan State, vs. Purdue
Purdue Boilermakers (15-9, 5-6)
Best wins: Temple, Miami, Illinois, Minnesota
Worst losses: Butler, Penn State, Alabama
The biggest problem with the Boilermakers is they don’t have any great wins, particularly any against a ranked team. They will get three chances in their final seven games though. They played great at Ohio State on February 7th and almost won there. If they play like that in the final month, they will get to 20 wins no problem.
Remaining games: vs. Northwestern, at Illinois, vs. #12 Michigan State, vs. Nebraska, at #25 Michigan, vs. Penn State, at #23 Indiana
Valparaiso Crusaders (18-8, 11-3)
Best wins: Cleveland State (twice), Butler, Milwaukee
Key losses: IPFW, IUPUI, Green Bay
The Crusaders are one of the best shooting teams in the country as they average a 47% field goal percentage each game. That contributes to the fact they have scored more than 70 points in 15 of their games. They are also in first place in the Horizon Conference. If they win the regular season title, there’s a good chance they will be in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. The only tough games left are a trip to Youngstown State and a home bout against Butler.
Remaining games: at Youngstown State, vs. U.I.-Chicago, at Loyola Marymount, vs. Loyola, vs. Butler
Butler Bulldogs (14-12, 8-6)
Best wins: Purdue, Stanford, Youngstown State (twice)
Worst losses: Evansville, Green Bay, Detroit
I may have Butler too high, but let’s not forget this is a team led by one of the best coaches in America. It’s also a team that’s been in the championship game the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are a young team, but one that you can never take lightly. It’s a long shot, but they could win out and sneak into the NCAA Tourney as a #13 or #14 seed just on the strength of what they have accomplished the last two years.
Remaining games: at Cleveland State, vs. Loyola, Indiana State, U.I.-Chicago, at Valparaiso.
Indiana State Sycamores (14-11, 5-9)
Best wins: Ball State, at Vanderbilt, Northern Iowa (twice)
Worst losses: Bradley, Southern Illinois, Boise State
Like Butler, the Sycamores could win the rest of their games and make a case to be selected as a high seed for the Tournament. That’s a huge longshot though, esp. since four of the last five opponents have winning records.
Remaining games: vs. Southern Illinois, vs. Illinois State, at Butler, at Missouri South, vs. #15 Creighton
Ball State Cardinals (12-10, 4-6)
Best wins: Butler
Worst losses: Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan
The Cardinals are in the midst of a five-game losing streak. Before the streak began they were 12-5 and in contention for a conference title. Now their season is all but done. The good news for Ball State fans is the schedule does get easier.
Remaining games: at Kent State, vs. Toledo, vs. Southern Illinois, at Western Michigan, at Eastern Michigan, vs. Central Michigan, vs. Northern Illinois
These bottom three teams are just playing for pride.
Evansville Aces (12-12, 7-7)
IUPUI Jaguars (10-16, 4-10)
IPFW Mastodons (10-14, 4-10)
-each team has five games left.
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