Sprint Cup Series Half-Way to the Chase

            We are halfway to the beginning of the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship and I think it’s safe to say there are no favorites. Even though Roush Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Greg Bifle are 1-2 in the standings, they have only combined to win two races. Denny Hamlin sits in fourth place and has won twice but he has been so inconsistent the entire season that it’s hard to imagine him putting together 10 great races in the Chase. Hendrick Motorsports drivers Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie take the third and fifth place spots. Those are two drivers that I would be worried about if I was a Roush driver. The other two at Hendrick, Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon, are also two that can get into the Chase. Both got off to rough starts but Kahne won the Coke 600 a couple of weeks ago and Gordon has been so close to winning but something out of his control always ruins it.

Points standings after Dover:

1) Greg Bifle

2) Matt Kenseth

3) Dale Earnhardt Jr.*

4) Denny Hamlin

5) Jimmie Johnson*

6) Martin Truex Jr.

7) Kevin Harvick*

8) Tony Stewart*

9) Kyle Busch

10) Clint Bowyer

11) Brad Keselowski*

12) Carl Edwards*

13) Ryan Newman

14) Kasey Kahne*

15) Paul Menard

16) Joey Logano

17) Aric Almirola

18) Jeff Burton

19) Marcos Ambrose*

20) Juan Pablo Montoya

21) Jeff Gordon

22) Jamie McMurray

23) AJ Allmendinger*

24) Mark Martin

25) Regan Smith*

*-Drivers I picked before the season as “Drivers to Watch”

           

Next 6 races:

6/10- Pocono

6/17- Michigan

6/24- Sonoma

6/30- Kentucky

7/7- Daytona

7/15- Loudon

            
          The first segment of the summer season for NASCAR is probably one of the more boring stretches in the season. This year could be completely different though. Pocono and Michigan have both been resurfaced since last year’s races. Testing done earlier in the season at the two tracks saw much higher speeds than ever before. Plus, the Pocono race has been shortened by 40 laps. Kentucky’s inaugural race was a snoozer and the biggest story that came from that weekend was the parking debacle that led to thousands of fans being stranded miles from the track. Hopefully teams learned enough from last year’s race that they’ll be able to set their cars up to make it easier to pass. Sonoma, Daytona, and Loudon are always exciting.

            With just 13 races left before the Chase, the time has come for drivers from about 15^th on back to start going for wins instead of just racing for points. Remember, after the last race before the Chase, drivers from 1^st-10^th are in the Chase. The final two spots are given to the drivers in 11^th-20^th that have the most wins. If the Chase started right now, those two would be Brad K. and Ryan Newman. Brad has two victories and Newman has one. Kahne also has won win but he is behind Newman in the points standings.

            Nobody else from 10^th back has any wins. If anybody is going to change that and make a charge to get into the Chase, it’s going to be Jeff Gordon. The four-time champ has been so close to winning several times this season, only to have something out of his control end up ruining his race. Gordon had a big lead late in the race at Martinsville, but a caution came out and led to a green-white-checkered finish. On that restart, Clint Bowyer dove underneath Gordon and slammed him into the wall. At Dover, Gordon had one of the strongest cars and was leading when one of his tires became loose because his tire changer didn’t’ get all the lug nuts tightened. Gordon is just about the only driver in the garage that has the talent and experience to overcome these misfortunes and still make the Chase.

            I would also keep an eye on Marcos Ambrose. The Australian made a living in his native country dominating on road courses and won at Watkins Glen in 2011. He could easily win both road course races before the Chase and clinch a spot for the postseason. I’m also anxious to see if my driver, AJ Allmendinger, can string together great finishes like his teammate Brad Keselowski did last summer. At the same time last year, Brad was in 21^st and just won a fuel-mileage race at Kansas. He then went on to win twice more and finished 5^th in the final points standings. The Dinger has the talent to do it, but does he have the crew chief? That’s what concerns me. Finally, Carl Edwards tied for the Sprint Cup Championship last year but has not even come close to even winning a race this year. He has the talent and the team, much like Jeff Gordon, to rally and win some races.