January Bowl Games Preview

I went 9-14 in predicting December bowl games, so my New Year’s Resolution is to be a little wiser in picking games.

TicketCity Bowl

Houston Cougars (12-1) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3)

Jan. 2, Noon

          The Cougars were one win away from playing in a BCS Bowl. That dream was smashed in the C-USA Championship game when they were soundly beaten by Southern Miss. The loss, and their fall to a lower-tier bowl, somewhat diminishes what a special year it was for their quarterback Case Keenum. Keenum broke the NCAA career records for career passing yards, career touchdown passes, and total offense. The Cougars will also have a new coach on the sideline for this game.

          Where do you start with Penn State? On the field they are one of the most sound defensive teams in the country, making up for their inability to score on offense. Off the field, the entire Penn State brand was destroyed by former coach Jerry Sandusky. It will be interesting to see if either team comes out focused and determined to win.

My pick: Penn State

Update: Houston wins 30-14

Outback Bowl

Michigan State Spartans (10-3) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3)

Jan. 2, 1 p.m.

          The Spartans finished second in the Big Ten Conference after losing to Wisconsin in the Championship game. The Spartans offense ended the year on a roll, averaging 38 points a game. That offense is led by senior quarterback Kirk Cousins and running back Le’Veon Bell. Their defense ranks fifth nationally, and makes them a well-rounded team.

          The Bulldogs began the season 0-2 and on the verge of destruction. Then they went on a 10-game winning streak before losing to LSU in the SEC Championship. The Bulldogs are pretty similar to the Spartans. They have a good offense that relies on quarterback Aaron Murray  and a strong defense that is ranked third nationally.

My pick: Michigan State
Update: Michigan State wins 30-27 in triple overtime

Capitol One Bowl

Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2)

Jan. 2, 1 p.m.

          It has been a tale of two worlds for the Big 10’s newest member. They went from getting blown out by Wisconsin and Michigan to dominating Michigan State and Iowa. The Cornhuskers’ strength on offense is their rushing attack. Running back Rex Burkhead had 261 carries for 1268 yards and 15 touchdowns. Dual-threat quarterback Taylor Martinez also runs the ball a lot.

          The Gamecocks began the season with the expectation of winning their division and competing for the SEC Championship. They came awfully close to reaching that goal, and in my opinion got ripped off. They only had two conference losses and had a tougher schedule than Georgia, yet didn’t finish in first place in their division. Anyway, South Carolina’s season could have easily been derailed when their starting quarterback was kicked off the team and their starting running back got injured. The Gamecocks persevered with Connor Shaw as quarterback and won six of their last seven games. Just like the other SEC teams, they have a dominating defense that ranks seventh in the nation in yards allowed.

My pick: South Carolina

Update: South Carolina wins 30-13

Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) vs. Florida Gators (6-6)

Jan. 2, 1 p.m.

          This is easily the biggest bowl game between teams that aren’t ranked. Both schools have rich histories and huge fan bases. This matchup was made even more interesting when Ohio State announced that Urban Meyer, the previous coach at Florida, would become head coach for the 2012 season.

          Ohio State began the season in chaos. Their head coach was fired, their starting quarterback left for the NFL, and the football program was being investigated by the NCAA. It was no surprise to see them finish the way they did. Florida began the season with a new coach and staff, and nobody expected much from them either. Both teams play good defense, and it will be up to the offenses to break through and find ways to score.

My pick: Ohio State

Update: Florida wins 24-17

Rose Bowl

Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) vs. Oregon Ducks (11-2)

Jan. 2, 5 p.m.

          Wisconsin’s goal for the 2011 season was to make it back to a BCS and avenge the loss to TCU in the 2010 Rose Bowl. Needless to say, they achieved that goal and are determined to win this game. The Big 10 Champions are led by fifth-year senior Russell Wilson; a quarterback who can beat you with his strong arm or powerful running. The Badgers also have one of the best running backs in the country, Montee Ball who plays behind one of the biggest offensive lines in the country. The Badgers should able to handle the speedy Oregon defense, but it is the Oregon offense that will cause the most trouble.

          The Ducks offense has been one of the most exciting and prolific units the past two years. Head coach Chip Kelly has really done a good job of creating an offense that attacks, attacks, and attacks. Their running back, LaMichael James, has ran for more than 1,500 yards the past three seasons. Just as much as the Badgers want to make up for their Rose Bowl loss, the Ducks wants to show they can win on the big stage too.

My pick: Wisconsin in a close one
Update: Oregon wins 45-38

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Stanford Cardinal (10-2) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1)

Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m.

          Andrew Luck is about all you need to know about Stanford. He is their senior quarterback who is being compared to John Elway and Peyton Manning. Luck does an outstanding job of finding open receivers and spreading the ball around. Stanford also fields a good defense that ranks 25^th nationally in yards allowed.

          Oklahoma State is the typical Big 12 team; a high-scoring, unstoppable offense that makes up for a weak defense. The Cowboys are led by 28-year old quarterback Brandon Weedon and senior receiver Justin Blackmon.

My pick: Stanford
Update: Oklahoma State wins in overtime,41-38

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2)

Jan. 3, 8:30

          No one expected Michigan to be here under first- year coach Brady Hoke. Hoke has done a masterful job at utilizing and developing quarterback Denard Robinson as well as making sure the defense is up to snuff. Robinson leads a rushing attack that ranks 12^th in the nation in total yards, but he also has the ability to make big throws.

          The Hokies two losses were both to Clemson. They lost in the regular season 23-3 and then lost in the ACC Championship 38-10. They have no wins against ranked teams, so their selection into this bowl was a shocker. The more unfortunate news is that Michigan’s offense is similar to Clemson’s, except that Robinson is more explosive than Clemson’s quarterback. Virginia Tech is a pretty average team, so this will be a tough matchup for them.

My pick: Michigan in a blowout
Update: Michigan barely won in overtime, 23-20

Discover Orange Bowl

West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) vs. Clemson Tigers (10-3)

Jan. 4, 8:30 p.m.

          This is the battle of Big East Champion vs. ACC Champion. The Mountaineers have a high-powered offensive attack with quarterback Geno Smith at the helm. Their passing offense ranks seventh in the country and they rank 20^th in points per game. The defense, which lost seven starters from last year’s unit, has struggled all year and ranks 63^rd in points allowed.

          Clemson won the ACC title for the first time since 1991. They started the year 8-0 but lost three of their final four to limp into the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers have a great offense too. First-year quarterback Tajh Boyd and wide receiver Sammy Watkins lead a unit that ranks 21^st in passing. Their defense is similar to W.V.’s as well, as they rank 62^nd in points allowed.

My pick: Clemson
Update: West Virginia wins 70-33. WVU scored the most points ever in a bowl game.

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2)

Jan. 6, 8 p.m.

          This has the appearance of a BCS Bowl Game, but it’s not. What it is though, is a matchup of two teams that finished third in their respective conferences and feature high-scoring offenses. Kansas State ranks 109^th in passing, but 27^th in rushing, so it seems a bit odd that their quarterback Collin Klein is their best player.

          Arkansas had the lovely honor of playing in the SEC West Division. That’s the same division that as #1 LSU and #2 Alabama. The Razorbacks rank 13^th in passing yards nationally, 14^th in points per game nationally, and 1^st in the SEC in total offense. They have a good defense, but nothing like some of the other SEC teams. They will have their hands full trying to stop the Wildcats.

My pick: Arkansas
Update: Arkansas wins 29-16

BBVA Compass Bowl

SMU Mustangs (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6)

Jan. 7, 1 p.m.

          This may be the most unwatched of all the bowl games. Slapped right in the middle of all these great January bowl games is this one. The Mustangs started the season 5-1 before losing four of their last six. They look to end the season strongly with a win.

          The Panthers are just a lousy Big East team that takes the spot of a team that deserves this bowl more than they do.  I honestly don’t care what happens in this game.

My pick: SMU

Update: SMU wins 28-6

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3)

Jan. 8, 9 p.m.

          Who would have thought that a bowl game with two teams that have 10+ wins would be so under-the-radar? Arkansas State is the Sun Belt Champion and one of the most complete teams in America. They rank 25^th in total offense and 20^th in total defense. Watch out for wide receiver Dwayne Frampton who has broken just about every school record a wide receiver can.

          The Huskies won the MAC Championship after years of heartbreak in the championship game. The Huskies rank 7^th in rushing yards (one spot behind the Red Wolves) and 13^th in points for. The big difference maker in this game is that the Huskies’ defense is nowhere near as good as the Red Wolves.

My pick: Arkansas State

BCS National Championship

Alabama (11-1) vs. LSU (13-0)

Jan. 9, 8:30 p.m.

          Here we are, the most important game in college football. The game decides the best team in the country. But wait, this game has already been played! Alabama and LSU met a few weeks ago and LSU won the game 9-6. Is there any reason to think that Alabama could win this game? In my opinion, no.  Both teams have incredible defenses that are filled with NFL prospects. Both teams have decent offenses, but LSU’s is a little better. That will be the difference in the game.

My pick: LSU wins by 7.