Bye Week for Notre Dame

 Notre Dame is off to its best start since 2002 and back in the AP Top 10 for the first time since 2006.  The 4-0, #10 Fighting Irish defeated the Michigan Wolverines 13-6 Saturday night to silence many critics who said this team was overrated. Both teams played awful as they combined for eight turnovers. Michigan’s Denard Robinson contributed five of those and Notre Dame’s Everett Golson threw two interceptions. Neither team was able to gain more than 300 yards of total offense and at one point, Robinson threw four straight passes that were intercepted by Notre Dame defenders. Even though I would have liked to see the Irish win more decisively, I’ll take the W.

Now, the Irish have this week off to prepare for the final eight games of the season. The final two thirds of the schedule feature four at home, three on the road, and one game at Soldier Field in Chicago. This bye week could not come at a better point in the season. The team can catch its breath after its trip to Ireland and three wild rivalry games. Plus, they can lose the spotlight that has been following them the last two weeks.

Here’s some storylines heading into the week off

Golson vs. Rees

The week off also allows the head coach, Brian Kelly, to figure out the quarterback situation. Twice this season, in the Purdue and Michigan games, Kelly pulled the starting quarterback, Everett Golson, and replaced him with the backup, Tommy Rees. Kelly insists there is not a quarterback issue and Golson will remain the starter, but one has to assume that Golson and Rees have questions about their role in the offense. At the very least, Golson’s confidence has to be a little shaken.

I don’t believe Golson should have been taken out of the game so early. Even though he threw two bad interceptions, it’s not as if the game was completely out of control. Notre Dame’s defense was dominating Michigan’s offense and showed no signs of letting up. Considering Golson didn’t throw an interception against Purdue or Michigan State, throwing two in the biggest game of his career isn’t that bad. The young man said he was nervous to play at Notre Dame Stadium against Purdue in front of his friends and family. Can you imagine his nerves before the Michigan matchup and the biggest game of his career up to this point? I find it hard to believe that he would have been held out of the endzone the entire night.

I’m a big believer in the theory that the Irish are going to be even better next year. Heading into this season, I had the mindset that no matter how great, or bad, this season was, next season would be better. It’s important to maintain that thinking when dealing with Golson and Rees. Rees is not the future of this team. His abilities as a quarterback do not match what Kelly wants in his offense and don’t match what elite quarterbacks can do. Golson may not be the guy that leads the Irish to a national championship, but it definitely will not be Tommy Rees.

Golson’s stats this season: 50/89, 641 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 3 interceptions

Rees’ stats this season: 11/17, 150 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions

Gunner Kiel

All this quarterback talk brings up the question of what to do with freshman Gunner Kiel. Kiel was one of the highest rated quarterbacks in the 2011 recruiting class. The Indiana-native originally committed to Indiana University then switched to Louisiana State. Then he made the last-minute decision to commit to Notre Dame. The freshman has a ton of talent and potential and will definitely be the starting quarterback someday. He is currently 4^th on the QB depth chart, behind Golson, Rees, and Andrew Hendrix. If Kiel isn’t going to get any playing time, then he needs to be redshirted. He is too valuable to waste an entire year of eligibility riding the bench.

4-0 and Brian Kelly

In 2002, Tyrone Willingham’s first year as head coach, the Irish started 8-0 and finished 10-2. The next two years under Willingham’s reign saw a decline, not improvement, in the team’s win-loss record as the Irish finished 5-7 and 6-7.

Willingham was replaced by offensive guru and Notre Dame alumnus, Charlie Weis. Like Willingham, Weis’ had a very impressive record in his first season as the team ended 2005, 9-3. The Irish entered the 2006 season ranked #2 and was led by senior quarterback, Brady Quinn. The expectations were through the roof, especially after a 3-0 start. However, the Irish finished the season 11-2 after blowout losses to Michigan and LSU. The next two years in the Weis era were two of the worst years in Notre Dame Football history. The ridiculous and unacceptable losses to horrible teams like Navy, Air Force, Boston College, and Syracuse were just part of the reason Weis was fired after the 2009 season.

The most heartening fact about the 4-0 start is that unlike his predecessors, Kelly’s teams are getting better. Kelly’s first two seasons ended with 8-5 records. Just a third into the season, the Irish are already halfway to eight wins. The argument could be made that Willingham and Weis both took advantage of players that the coaches before them recruited and that’s why they succeeded so much in their first two years. But in Kelly’s case, many of the players he’s brought in are already getting playing time and contributing to victories.

Goodbye, Michigan

The first casualty of the ACC-Notre Dame alignment is the century-old Notre Dame-Michigan rivalry.  Notre Dame announced earlier this week that they were opting out of the rivalry after the 2014 season. The move was made so the Irish could have more flexibility in their schedule. Right now, Notre Dame will be required to play five ACC teams in 2015. It is also expected that we will keep Stanford, USC, and Navy on the schedule. That is eight games locked in and leaves room for just four opponents. Purdue and Michigan State will most likely fill at least one of those spots. It’s also reasonable to believe that a “Shamrock Series” game will be on the schedule as well.

It seems like the biggest backlash from this announcement is coming from the Irish faithful. They argue that Notre Dame is all about tradition and this rivalry means too much. For me, I have never considered the Michigan rivalry that big of a deal. Since 1887, the two historic programs have only played 40 times. 
 Compare that to these numbers with other rivals:

Michigan State: 75 games since 1897

Purdue: 84 games since 1896

USC: 82 games since 1926

Picks for Week 5

Games are in order of scheduled kickoff times. Winners in bold.

#25 Baylor Bears (3-0) at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0)

Penn State Nittany Lions (2-2) at Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2)

North Carolina State Wolfpack (3-1) at Miami Hurricanes (3-1)

#14 Ohio State (4-0) at #20 Michigan State Spartans (3-0)

Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) at Cincinnati Bearcats (2-0)

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-0) at Virginia Cavaliers (2-2)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) at Iowa State Cyclones (3-0)

#12 Texas Longhorns (3-0) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-1)

Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) at #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1)

#18 Oregon State Beavers (2-0) at Arizona Wildcats (3-1)

This week’s slate of games is one of the weakest all season, but there are a handful of games that could turn out to be exciting. Neither Illinois nor Penn State has a quality win and both will try to get on Saturday. Penn State is probably the better team but Illinois will have the home field advantage. North Carolina State and Miami are both trying to build momentum before showdowns against Top 10 teams next week. Cincinnati looked amazing against Pittsburgh and if they beat Virginia Tech I don’t know if I’d consider it an “upset”. Louisiana Tech demolished Illinois last Saturday and could defeat another big name school this week. Iowa State has already defeated Iowa and could move to 4-0 for the first time in at least a decade.

I went 9-1 in picks last night and stand at 35-7 on the season. This week was the toughest to pick yet and I don’t think I’ll be going 9-1 again.

Notre Dame-Michigan Preview

 I’m feeling under the weather so this preview is going to be a little short. Notre Dame and Michigan go head to head for the 40^th time in their storied rivalry. The game will also mark the 30^th anniversary of the first night game in Notre Dame Stadium history. The opponent for that first night under the lights was also the Michigan Wolverines. Recently this rivalry has been all Michigan. They have won every year since 2009 and that comes down to the athleticism of quarterback Denard Robinson. The Fighting Irish have had no success in slowing down Robinson whether he’s throwing or running the ball. That changes this year. Notre Dame has one of the best corps of defensive lineman and linebackers in the country. They have held their first three opponents to 289 rushing yards, which is less than 100 per game. The combined unit has also contained the opposing offenses to scoring only 30 points combined.

Keys to Victory

1) Stop Denard Robinson- This is the matchup for the Irish. They will have to stop Robinson from completely dismantling for them four quarters if they expect to send the Wolverines home with a loss.  In three games so far Robinson has averaged 233 passing yards and 117 rushing yards. Bringing down those gaudy numbers is the stat that Robinson has also thrown four interceptions. In the past, Robinson has looked like a Heisman contender and nearly unstoppable. This season, he has not looked as great.

2) Develop a run game- This will be the first time since the Week 1 Navy game that the Irish will face a run defense that is mediocre. Michigan has a run defense ranked 80^th nationally and this should finally give Brian Kelly and offensive coordinator Chuck Martin a chance to take some pressure off quarterback Everett Golson. Against Purdue, Notre Dame running backs ran for a measly 52 yards. That number increased to 122 against Michigan State. I expect the Irish to put up over 150 yards against Michigan.

3) Don’t get caught staring into the lights- I mentioned earlier that this will be a night game. It’s also the only night game at Notre Dame Stadium this season so there is a lot of hype and excitement on campus. Last season, Notre Dame played at night against USC as well. There were tons of events going on that week on campus and off. It seemed like all everybody cared about was seeing the lights turned on than actually watching a game. Not surprisingly, The Fighting Irish looked flat on both sides of the ball and lost 31-17 in a game that really was never even that close. They didn’t tackle well, they didn’t execute on offense, and they made bonehead plays. Kelly said his players and coaches learned a lot from that defeat and have used lessons learned a year ago in the game plan for this week.

My prediction: #11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish- 34. #18 Michigan Wolverines- 16

UPDATE 9/23/2012: Notre Dame wins 13-6

Around the Country

There are some great games that are worth taking time to watch on Saturday. It’s a shame too because many Irish faithful were hoping ESPN’s “College Gameday” would be in South Bend. If you have chores to do make sure you get some done in the morning and early afternoon because the big matchups are all at night.

Missouri Tigers (2-1) at #7 South Carolina Gamecocks (3-0)

Oregon State Beavers (1-0) at #19 UCLA Bruins (2-1)

South Florida Bulls (2-1) at Ball State Cardinals (2-1)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) at Arkansas Razorbacks (1-2)

#18 Michigan Wolverines (2-1) at #11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0)

#15 Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) at #6 Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)

#10 Clemson Tigers (3-0) at #4 Florida State Seminoles (3-0)

San Jose State Spartans (2-1) at San Diego State Aztecs (2-1)

Syracuse Orange (1-2) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0)

#22 Arizona Wildcats (3-0) at #3 Oregon Ducks (3-0)

Another week of picking 6-3 has me at a season record of 25-6 so I think it’s safe to say I’m an expert, huh? I’m going with most of the favorites but I think the Missouri and South Carolina game will be really close. The USF and Ball State is intriguing too as both teams seem pretty equal. Arkansas has their back against the wall but Rutgers is having a great season. It’s unfortunate that the three biggest games all start at within 30 minutes of each other. ND-Michigan is at 7:30, KSU-OU is at 7:50 and Clem-FSU at 8:00.